I'm lucky to have a wonderful OB who delivered my first by C-section. He is entirely willing to try a VBAC, but we've had some long talks about the risks, and the variables that affect the risks.
The short version (and I recommend you get the long version before you make a decision!) is...
There is around a 1/600 risk of the scar rupturing, which puts you at risk of a hysterectomy or bleeding to death and puts the baby at risk of death or permanent brain damage. That risk changes a bit depending on how big the baby is, how big the head is, and other stuff I don't fully understand. If the baby is early, the risk is lower. If late, it's higher.
That risk is similar to the chances of something going wrong in a C-section, *but* the risk of it being something serious isn't the same (i.e. 'something going wrong' versus 'something life-threatening causing permanent damage going wrong').
The route I agreed to take with my doc - and I'm not suggesting this is the 'right' thing for you, just where I decided I was comfortable - was to schedule a C-section 6 days before my due date. I had a scan a week ago and she's on track to be a 9.5 lb baby, which is a factor in where I've landed, obviously. I'll have an internal exam 2 days before the scheduled C, and if she's partly engaged and I'm partly dilated, we may cancel the op. If she's not showing any signs of imminent arrival, we'll go ahead with it.
My OB's original advice was that we pick a date - maybe 39 weeks, maybe 41 weeks according to my comfort level. Then we reevaluate after the 36-week scan. Either way, we keep an open mind at the time and see how things are looking.
It may not be universal, but the hospital and doc I'm seeing absolutely will not induce labor if you've had a prior Caesar. Contractions are often more intense and raise the risk of a rupture.